IR summary: the occupation command prepares for two scenarios of the “offensive of Ukrainian Armed Forces”
IR summary: the occupation command prepares for two scenarios of the “offensive of Ukrainian Armed Forces”
Operational data group "Information Resistance"
The Russian occupation forces in the Donbas continue armed provocations and shelling of positions of units from the Joint Forces (JF), as well as settlements near the demarcation line (while their number has significantly increased from 9-10 to 22-25 per day). The enemy, in the course of the attacks, also uses types of armaments that are “forbidden” by Minsk agreements - 120-mm mortars, 122-mm and 152-mm artillery systems, occasionally - 122-mm MLRS “Grad-P” (“Partizan”). The use of such weapons as regular armament of armored combat vehicles has become more frequent. The appearance in the first line of individual and pairs tanks is noted. The enemy is more active in using anti-aircraft guns ZU-23-2 and ATGW.
The main areas where the occupation forces show fire activity are:
- Area of "Bakhmutka" (from Novotoshkovka to Sokolniki, including the district of Krymskoe),
- Both flanks of the Svetlodarsk arc (including the Troitskoe and Popasnaya districts, the area south of Svetlodarsk and north of Nizhny Lozovoy),
- Western and northeastern outskirts of Gorlovka,
- The area of the north-western outskirts of Donetsk (Peski, Putilovka, area of DAP, Yasinovataya-Avdiivka),
- Area south of Donetsk (Dokuchaevsk and south),
- Mariupol direction (from Pavlopol to the coast).
There has been a sharp increase in the enemy’s conduct of all types of reconnaissance - from the agent in the front-line, to EW throughout the area of the operation. The activity of using UAVs for the purposes of reconnaissance and monitoring is also increasing.
In general, after the introduction of martial law in a number of regions of Ukraine, “nervousness” is noted in the actions of the Russian occupation forces in the Donbas (sporadic, chaotic open of fire, reinforcement of duty personnel and assets, redeployment of additional reserves directly to the first line). At the same time, the formations of both "Army Corps" are brought to increased degrees of combat readiness on a larger length of the entire demarcation line. In number of “brigades, regiments and battalions”, the release and dismissal of personnel was totally canceled, and their command expects a sharp escalation in the conduct of hostilities at any moment. In general, in the territory controlled by the “DPR” and “LPR”, the command of the Russian occupation forces decided to strengthen the administrative-police and counterintelligence regime, transfer all so-called "Power structures" on enhanced duty.
Other military activity:
- the combat use of high-precision artillery ammunition of the Krasnopol type of Russian production by the occupiers in the area of responsibility of “1st Army Corps DPR” of the operational grouping of the Russian occupation troops was recorded. This is adjustable 152/155-mm caliber artillery ammunition, which is designed to destroy armored targets and military objects from the first shot. Correction is performed by aerodynamic control fins, and in the final flight segment by the laser mark on the target. Krasnopol was developed in the Tula Instrument Design Bureau (RF). Serial production is conducted by Izhmash OJSC (Izhevsk, Russian Federation) and LOMO JSC (St. Petersburg, Russian Federation);
- The command of the “2nd Army Corps LPR” continues measures to strengthen the flanks of its “Stakhanov grouping”. During the week, the redeployment of small groups of armored vehicles to the Slavyanoserbsk region and north-west to Sentyanovka and Dachnoe was recorded. In the area to the south of Bakhmutka, moving groups of armored combat vehicles (3-4 units BMP-1/2, BTR-70 /80, less often MT-LB) were observed in the general direction to the north-west. Thus, in the region north of Stepovoe, a group of 5 BTR-70/80, 2 BRDM-2 and 1 MT-LB was noted. Earlier, in the area of Petrovenki - 4 BMP-1 and 1 BRM-1K. North of Vesogorovka - equipment of new firing positions for 120-mm mortars and the appearance of new armored vehicles in the area of Kalinovo, and a group of 3 BMP-1 was noted (which the occupants already had used in a number of attacks on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). All this speaks about the purposeful and complex nature of these regroupings and activities (it is also worth recalling that the invaders had been actively turning the Pervomayka area into a powerful fortified area over the past month, completing with various means of destruction and mining "tank-dangerous" areas, as the IR group reported earlier);
- The command of the “2nd Army Corps LPR” does not reinforce directly only the first line, but also forms “duty” reserve groups in the second echelon. Thus, in the area of the Bakhmutka route between Aleksandrovsk and the intersection at Stepovoe, a group of 6 T-72 and several BMP-1, accompanied by army trucks, was fixed on the march. This is one of the reserve groups intended for high-quality reinforcement and carrying out counter-attacking actions in the event of a break-through of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the tactical depth on the right flank of the “Stakhanov grouping” of the occupying forces;
- On the highway N-21 in the direction of Donetsk, a transfer of two batches of tanks is fixed during the week;
- In the area between Donetsk and Gorlovka (Betmanovo - Panteleimonovka - Mikhailovka), the occupants also reinforce certain areas. In this case, the command of the “1st Army Corps DPR” is worried about the junction with the “3rd separate mechanized brigade”, which occupies positions in the “Gorlovka balcony”. Thus, in this area along the route, the appearance of additional combat armored vehicles is noted, as well as the equipment of positions for ATGW and anti-aircraft systems (type 9K35 Strela-10 and ZU-23-2);
- The cycle of combat coordination of a number of units of the battalion / divisional level with combat shooting continues in the “1st Army Corps DPR” and “2nd Army Corps LPR”. Thus, a number of units from the 5th brigade (including tank and artillery units - at least 30 tanks and up to the artillery division of 2 batteries), a number of artillery units from the 4th and 2nd brigades are at the training grounds south-west and west of Lugansk (also motorized rifle battalion, tank and artillery company / battery as reinforcement)., special attention is paid to the interaction between tanks and artillery during combat coordination.
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The old misinformation about the impending large-scale offensive of the Ukrainian troops is growing over with specifics. In particular, at the suggestion of "Russian specialists" in the headquarters of both Army Corps of the occupying forces of the Russian Federation in the Donbas, "two plans for the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" are being discussed. According to the Russians, there are British and American "plans."
According to the “British plan”, after some kind of provocation conducted by JF in the Gorlovka area, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will go on to active offensive actions to encircle and isolate Gorlovka in order to “ensure the safety of civilians”. The duration of the “active phase” is up to 4 days, the planned result is the encirclement and destruction of the Gorlovka grouping of the “1st Army Corps DPR” (which is based on the “3rd separate mechanized brigade”). The use of chemical weapons by “British military experts” (the IR group reported earlier about the dissemination of such misinformation in the “DPR”) is being considered as an initial provocation, which should be a pretext for the attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. There is also a possible option - “in order to avoid an environmental catastrophe” in connection with the “burial of radiation waste by the Russians” and “raising mine water”.
According to the “American plan”, the planned “large-scale offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine” will allegedly be carried out in the Mariupol region. After provocation in the form of “attack by the Marines of the DPR” (which will be represented by units of the Joint forces disguised as invaders) on Mariupol, the Armed Forces of Ukraine inflict massive air and missile strikes on the objects in the “DPR” and “LPR” - the infrastructure (bridges, overpasses, industrial facilities), command posts and control posts of the occupying forces of the Russian Federation, ammunition depots, vehicles parking, locations of "formations". The time of conducting is up to 5 days, and the planned result is the cutting off “DPR” from the Sea of Azov and the exit of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the state border with Russia in the Novoazovsk region.
According to the occupational command, representatives of “major Western media and PR companies” have already been brought to Mariupol to create the “picture” that Kiev needs.
Also the headquarters of both Army Corps of the occupying troops consider the possibility of implementing of both plans - "British" and "American" by JF at the one time.
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The Russian occupational command in the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions continues to actively carry out a campaign aimed at replenishing incomplete personnel of units of 1st and 2nd Army Corps of the occupying forces. To this end, the occupation administrations and the occupying command have stepped up their work among graduates of secondary and specialized secondary educational institutions for their recruitment to "contract military service".
At the same time, "servicemen" from motorized rifle "brigades and regiments" of the occupying forces, whose contracts have ended, cannot resign from service. The command explains its refusal to dismiss militants and Russian mercenaries with two arguments — increased combat readiness and the inability to “replace” a “soldier” by someone (there is simply no reinforcement). At the same time, the staffing level of the advanced units at the level of 50% of the regular number is considered as “very satisfactory”.
The command of both Army Corps is making titanic efforts to establish normal operation of the motor transport of units in winter conditions. The transition to the winter period of exploitation of equipment and weapons showed that in a number of brigades, battalions and regiments there are not enough elementary material and technical means - automobile tires, winter engine oils, spare parts, etc. There is a sharp decrease in the number of vehicles for full operation in difficult weather conditions, while the use of suitable transport increases dramatically. The command of occupants hope for urgent and quality assistance in the form of deliveries of relevant spare parts and supply from the territory of the Russian Federation.
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During the Russian occupation of the Donbas, all mines (“named after Gayevoy”, “named after Kalinin”, “named after Rumyantsev”, etc.) are flooded in the settlement Gorlovka, Donetsk region, which operated until the beginning of the Russian aggression. As a result of soil subsidence, there is a gradual destruction of residential buildings. Representatives of the occupation authorities state the fact of the lack of funds to stabilize the situation, and promises to build a drainage system are not being fulfilled due to the lack of promised assistance from Russia.
The occupation authorities take measures to counter Ukrainian radio broadcasting to the territory controlled by the “DPR”. In particular, the management of the so-called “GE Radio and Television Transmitting Center” (subordinate to the “Ministry of Communications of the DPR”) instructed to dismantle transmitter ATRS 50/5 on a TV tower in Donetsk (before the beginning of hostilities, it provided broadcasting of such TV channels as UT-1). They plan to install 9 transmitters in its place that must jam the Ukrainian signal and distribute their own.
Employees of mine No. 23 (Partizanskaya mine, Anthracite, Lugansk region) tried to start a strike because of three-month wage arrears. However, local representatives of the “law enforcement bodies of the LPR” suppressed the action of disobedience by applying physical influence and moral and psychological pressure. At the same time, the main organizers of the protest were dismissed.